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Evidence for and against a belief (what counts)

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Evidence here means what happened in a specific moment, in order, and a label, a quiz result or a strong sense of recognition is not evidence.

You read a description of a rule and something in you says that it is you. It is a strong feeling. A week later a different description does the same thing. You are not sure what either one proved. I keep reading and researching and adding things, and there's still a piece I haven't got to.

The difference decides what an explanation is allowed to rest on.

01

What counts

A scene counts: one particular day, what was said, what you did.

The order inside the scene counts most. What set it off, what you took it to mean, what you protected, what you did.

Repetition counts. The same order showing up at work, at home and with family, under different topics, is stronger than any one instance.

And the quiet days count. An explanation that only fits the bad days may be describing the bad days.

02

What doesn't

Recognition doesn't. A person can feel seen by more than one description, since the surface signs of neighboring rules overlap heavily.

A label doesn't. Calling yourself a people-pleaser names a strategy, and a strategy says what someone does and never why.

One instance doesn't. Anyone can have one bad Tuesday.

A quiz result doesn't, since it adds up descriptions and not scenes.

03

Where feelings fit

A feeling is evidence that you felt it. That you were hurt when she didn't reply belongs in the scene.

What a feeling can't do is prove the explanation attached to it. Being certain does not prove it either.

04

One example

You are sure that what is under your agreeing is Peace. The line "If everyone is okay, then I'm okay" landed hard, and the description fit.

Then you write down three scenes. In each of them, the reaction you were picturing belonged to the same person, including the two scenes that person was not in.

That is worth a question. Is it anyone being upset with you, or one person's verdict? Anyone is the Peace answer. One person, someone you can name, is the Approval answer.

The recognition was real, and it was not evidence. The three scenes were.

05

When the evidence runs out

Sometimes three scenes point three ways, or nowhere. Then there is not enough to tell yet.

Sometimes they point at something that is not a rule at all: grief, a hard season, a job that is too big. Subtraction counts those as findings.

How a candidate gets checked against the evidence is on How a Rule Gets Tested.

What "disconfirming evidence" means and why it matters

Disconfirming evidence is whatever would show a candidate rule to be wrong, and an explanation that can't say what that would be can't be checked.

Your next step

Read this one page next.

Just one. You don't have to read them all.

More like this (2)Why we start with the scene, not the storyThe Approval rule

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